The ingredients therefore are: predictable central banks, lower however hedged global growth, low commodity prices and a slowdown of political influences to the markets. For the domestic capital market speaking, some positive arguments are discussed further on.
The review of the last few months gives us confidence for the future ones. The ECB has so far mastered their task with flying colors and verve. The European yields, after a stagnating start followed by a bond-purchase-program, remain low and stable. The US-FED completed their quantitative easing program already last autumn and is already thinking about interest rate hikes. Therefore, the US-Dollar gained in strength, leaving other currencies in relative weakness behind. Asia is again in the shadow of China, which is slowly moving away from the USD-dependence and transferring itself into a more service oriented economy from production & manufacturing. Fluctuations of growth were perceived initially exaggerated and affected the market negatively, but normalized at the end. In connection to China’s development were the commodity markets, which resulted in negative trends and remained under pressure. Last but not least the oil prices emerged from their bottom, after the US shale oil production was lowered as well as the OPEC reduced their funding rate - a slow upturn in oil prices will derive from that, which will in particular counteract to the ECB’s inflationary goal.
The Austrian stock market is positively embedded in this environment. Low energy costs, low yields, a relative low Euro and little dependence on Asia. What makes the Euro a positive special factor is the close connection to a strong and stable growing Eastern Europe and through the conservative accounting policy of the last few years the earnings momentum strengthens. In 2016, this should out-stand the other European countries, which will be supportive for the Austrian performance already at the current year as the stock market begins to anticipate this development.
Author:
Wolfgang Matejka, CEFA
Managing Director of Matejka & Partner Asset Management GmbH
3 November 2015
Note
Wiener Börse AG would explicitly like to point out that the data and calculations given in this report are historic values, which do not permit any conclusions as regards future developments or value stability. Price fluctuations and loss of capital are possible in securities trading. The contribution is the personal opinion of the analyst and does not constitute a financial analysis or a recommendation for investment by the exchange operating company, Wiener Börse AG.